Neramumai islamo pasaulyje (AF, SY, IQ, EG, LY, TN, DZ, MA, YE, BH, ...)

[senasnamas]

Bačiulis gerai rašo apie tai, kas seniai aišku:
1. Sirijoje ir panašiose šalyse viskas vyksta dėl telkinių ir vamzdynų (stipresni braižo linijas ir dalinasi silpnesnius)
2. Clinton ir ISIS rėmėjai yra tie patys.
Tai Asadas "nuožmiu tironu" tapo nuo tada, kai nepaklausė Kataro. Būtų paklausęs, tai Vakarų šalys kviestų jį į susitikimus ir maloniai spaustų ranką. Būtų savas ir niekam nerūpėtų, ar šalies viduje tvarkosi labai demokratiškai ar visai nedemokratiškai.

[Sula]

"Taikūs kovotojai" nesusprogdintų architektūrinius paminklus Palmyroje.

Tai juk "pagonių" paminklai. Viskas vardan šviesaus rytojaus...

[ViR2]

Pagal korana, VISI musulmonai privalo naikinti visus false idols, bet lygiai tas pats yra ir su biblija. Todel Egipte turime isnaikintus skulpturu ir raiziniu veidus, o Sirijoje/Irake/Libijoje - issprogdintas kulturos vertybes

Problema ne religijoj, problema jos interpretavima, issilavinimo trukume ir skurde Pvz tie patys Sirai buvo lygiai tiek pat sekuliarus, kaip ir Libanas ar mazai nusileisdavo Turkams. Kodel suvesejo Isis/sukileliai ir muslim brotherhood? Nes prasto issilavinimo kaimieciai, be pajamu ir genami teritorijos dykumejimo kelesi i miestus, taip sukeldami socialine trinti del ko konfliktai savaime buvo uzprogtramuoti ir tik dar labiau pasispartino su Irako uzpuolimu, kuomet buvo greitai radikalizuota zenkli populiacijos dalis, o anksciau buve "sustri" karininkai nustumti i parastes, del ko prisidejo prie ISIS (o tiksliau, state ant greiciausio ir geriausiai atrodancio arklio tuo metu).

Lygiai taip pat su Sirijos "sukileliais". Pacioj "revoliucijos" pradzioj tikrai buvo daug taikiu protestu, buvo daug taikiu reikalavimu ir noro kazka keist. Bet "revoliucija" pereme radikalai, jie buvo garsiausiai rekiantys, arsiausi ir kai pradejo saudyt i beginkle riausiu policija Daraa ir Homse - prasidejo visa mesmale.

Jei dar kazkas galvoja, kad ten karas yra civilinis (dar kartais pasirodo tokios zinutes) - taip nera, nera aiskiu grupiu, nera aiskiu lyderiu, nera aiskiu ir unifikuotu vertybiu reikalavimo "sukilusioj pusej". Pvz, kas vienija visus alkaidukus? 1) Shariah; 2) God law above man made law 3) Islamic dress code 3) Ypatingai turtingi sponsoriai samdantys milziniskas PR agenturas (tiek alkaidukams, tiek ISIS).

Jei kas domites filosofija/matematika/statistika, turetumet but girdeje viena garsiausiu filosofu is ME. Jis buves ir Lietuvoj, o musu politikai daznai megsta ji pacituot, ypac Simasius ar kuris nors is konservatoriu/liberalu elito. Va ka jis gali pasakyti apie visa konflikta:

When Pasquale Cirillo and I examined the historical accounts of wars for our statistical analysis of violence, we discovered huge holes –people take numbers for gospel, yet many accounts were fabrications. Many historians, political “scientists”, and others for fall for them, then get to write books. For instance we saw that the scientific entertainer Steven Pinker based his analysis of the severity of the An Lushan rebellion on a shoddy overestimation –the real numbers of casualties could to be lower by an order of magnitude. Much of Pinker’s thesis of drop in violence depends on the past being more violent; it thus gets further discredited (the thesis is shaky anyway as Pinker’s general assertions conflict with the statistical data he provides). Peter Frankopan, in his magesterial The Silk Roads, seem to get the point: estimations of casualties from the Mongol invasions were inflated as their accounts exaggerated the devastation they caused in order to intimidate opponents (war is not so much about killing as it is about bringing submission). Our main (technical) paper is here.

But it is not just the bullshitting of Steven Pinker: numbers for many wars seem to have been pulled out of a hat. Some journalist cites some person at a conference; it finds it way to Le Monde or the New York Times, and that number becomes fixed for future generations. For our attempt to build a rigorous method of quantitative historiography, we devised statistical robustness techniques: they consist in bootstraping “histories” from the past, considering the past a realization between the lowest and the highest estimate available, producing tens of thousands of such “historical paths” and evaluate how “robust” an estimator to changes in the aggregate. More depressingly, we found that no historian had bothered to do similar cleaning up work or robustness check –yet the statistical apparatus is there to help.

It hit me that I needed to look into the estimates of Syrian refugees in Lebanon –here again numbers are flying without much rigor, swelling upwards from report to report. But we can assess the bias: they are potentially overstimated (as Amin Maalouf commented, the télephone arabe mechanism makes people more likely to increase the number in order to get attention). For, at a certain municipality in Lebanon, I was told that the number of refugees in the town, while large, was considerably lower than what was used by the bureaucrats of the U.N. My suspicion is tat the real number is about a third of what is published. While this is very optimistic for Lebanon (there should be fewer refugees than claimed, so let us worry less about the stability of the place), it is not good for the economics and funding of U.N. agencies and the lifestyle of their bureaucrats.

Now, the reasonable estimation of casualties from the Syrian war. We hear half a million people died in Syria. We are also told that many are “murdered” by Putin, Assad, and Catherine the Great (who came down to bully the Ottomans in the Levant after her invasion of the Crimea). It is easy to verify that much of the information we get about “butcher” of Damascus are suspicious: some Saudi-Qatari funded P.R. firms in Washington and London have shown evidence of hyperactivity. Just as the number of hospitals in East Aleppo where Al-Qaeda is based (and from where it shells civilians in other parts of the city), just as the number of hospitals per capita there appears to me several times that in the rest of the world (every day we hear that the Russians have destroyed another hospital, yet the State department spokesman John Kirby could not place or name any of the five hospitals he was recently discussing). I see propagandists and Al Qaeda apologists such as Charles Lister (at the Salafi-funded Middle East Institute) throw numbers that get cited –yes, some idiot will cite numbers from the Al Qaeda propagandist Charles Lister, and may eventually be cited in turn by some decent newspaper, hence get fixed for posterity. I once saw a serious American journalist (“expert” on Syria) posting on social media macabre scenes as a testimony of Assad’s murders: it turned out that a picture of “dying children victims of Assad” was likely to be from Libya four years earlier; it appeared to be promoted by a Qatari-funded P.R. firm. Her reaction was unapologetic: “Don’t you think Assad is capable of these crimes?”

Trust none of what you hear, some of what you read, half of what you see goes an old trader adage. As a trader and quant/mathematical statistician, I have been taught to take data seriously, trust nobody’s numbers, and avoid people naive enough to engage in policy based on lurid but questionable pictures of destruction: the fake picture of a dying child is something nobody can question without appearing to be an asshole. As a citizen, I require that the designation “murderer” be determined in a court of law, not by Saudi-funded outlets — once someone is called a murderer or butcher, all bets are off. I cannot believe governments and bureaucrats could be so stupid. But they are.

Note: Nobody can claim that I am an Assad apologist. Assad blew up our house in Amioun when in 1982 my grandfather, as a member of parliament, voted for Bashir. But I overcome my personal grudge to look at this as a scientist, and a humanist: Sunni Islamic Jihad is far too dangerous to let my grudge get into the way.

PS. It turns that the realistic toll for the Hama uprising by the Moslem Brotherhood of 1979-1982, usually reported to have caused between 30,000 and 40,000 victims, could be around 2,000. More critically, the mysterious swelling of the estimate took place over time, with no novel information. (Data on declassified reports provided by Sharmine Narwani.)

PPS. Bill Clinton, when president, made a statement in 1999, about the casualties in Serbia-Bosnia and Croatia being around 250,000 dead: at least two to three times the total number taking the upper bound of current estimate. But the Clinton inflation went wild when it came to Kossovo; of his 100,000 “missing” Kossovars, only 3,000 to 5,000 turned out later to be fatalities. Yet he shelled the place and demonized the Serbs based on this information. Note that Saudi-funded P.R. firms were also active with the Kossovo story.

Alkaidukai vakar apsaude ir padege autobusu kolona, kuri turejo isevakuoti civilius is alkaiduku apsiaustu Fua ir Kafraya.



Su vairuotojais pasielge dar geriau:


Incidentas buvo uzprogramuotas, nes alkaidukai dabar turi savo nedideli "Jihadi civil war" kur siek tiek nuosaikesnes frakcijos tarp ahrar al sham ir jabhat fateh al sham daug pjaunasi is saudosi tarpusavyj (nesiplesiu, bet siulau pasekt Charles Lister, jis daugiau apie jihadi civil war pateikia info). Daug svabiau buvo, kaip vakaru propagandistai visa tai perteikia:


Viskas butu teisinga, visgi ivardinama JFS? Nevisai Sarmin yra de facto Jund Al Aqsa sostine, Jund al Aqsa yra su ISIS siejama ir neutralius santykius islaikanti grupuote, kurios Emiras laikomas vienas is 5 itakingiausiu zmoniu Sirijoje tarp visu alkaiduku (iskaitant ISIS). Nezinau kodel Turkai sutare, kad konvojus vaziuos butent per Sarmin, bet vaziuot pro ta miesta yra lygiai tas pats, kas Gay Pride organizuot maskvoj - imanoma, bet tik laiko klausimas, kada prasides problemos
Kaip reagavo po deginimo ponas Al Asfari, rasite cia:
https://twitter.com/EHSANI22/status/810525336270151680
^^Beje, jei norite geros info, be propagandos is rezimo puses - siulau sekti si zmogu Ehsani yra akademikas, turintis daug rysiu tarp rezimo, bet yra ganetinai atvirai priesiskas paciam rezimui, bet gan nesaliskas.

Alkaidukai bandydami uzglaistyt ir kiek imanoma nutildyt visa konflikta, pradejo pust migla apie ivardintus uzpuolikus, apie ju baiktai paieska, net parenge ju nuotraukas:

^^Vienintele problema, kad kaip ir ankstesniais atvejais su Nour al Din Al Zinki, kai grupe "aktyvistu" nupjove 12meciui galva - nieko ir nebus padaryta

Susitarimas, kuri ismoderavo Turkai atrodo taip:

*1250 civilians from Fuah will be released for ½ of Aleppo civilians.
*1250 from Fuah for other ½.
*1500 from Fuah for 1500 from Zabadani

Sita tiesiog paliksiu cia, sitas JAV islamistas pas mus buvo pristatomas kaip nepriklausomas zurnalistas, o realybej, nei vienam savo video nei karto nepaminejo Syria, nuolat svaigsta apie savo Ummah (musulmonu bendrija/visuomene) ir kalifatus)

[Jesolo]

Gerbiamiems skaitytojams, tik dar karta priminsiu, kas Sirijoje kovoja uz "sviesu, sekuliaru" rytoju.
1. Islamistinis Iranas, laisvalaikiu finansuojantis teroro aktus
2. Visame pasaulyje teroristiniais aktais isgarsejusi Hezbollah
3. Teroristinis huylostasnas. No comments.
4. Asadas, kurio megiamiausias uzsiemimas - zudyti savo salies piliecius.

Toks rinktinis, teroristinis blogio asies dream teamas

[senasnamas]

Išpuolis Turkijoje: pašautas Rusijos ambasadorius, jo būklė sunki

Skaitykite daugiau: http://www.15min.lt/naujiena/aktualu...joje-57-729386

[index]

Ankaroje pašautas Rusijos ambasadorius.

According to Russian TV, the ambassador had been attending an exhibition called "Russia as seen by Turks".

....

The gunman shouts: "Don't forget about Aleppo, don't forget about Syria" and uses the Islamic phrase "Allahu Akbar" (God is great").

....

It is too early to know the motives of the attacker, who has not yet been named. Some reports say he entered the art gallery using a police ID card, our correspondent adds.

http://www.bbc.com/news/world-europe-38369962

[John]

Išpuolis Turkijoje: pašautas Rusijos ambasadorius, jo būklė sunki

Skaitykite daugiau: http://www.15min.lt/naujiena/aktualu...joje-57-729386

بِسْمِ اللهِ الرَّحْمٰنِ الرَّحِيْمِ!

[Sula]

Gerbiamiems skaitytojams, tik dar karta priminsiu, kas Sirijoje kovoja uz "sviesu, sekuliaru" rytoju.
1. Islamistinis Iranas, laisvalaikiu finansuojantis teroro aktus
2. Visame pasaulyje teroristiniais aktais isgarsejusi Hezbollah
3. Teroristinis huylostasnas. No comments.
4. Asadas, kurio megiamiausias uzsiemimas - zudyti savo salies piliecius.

Toks rinktinis, teroristinis blogio asies dream teamas

Islamistinis - už sekuliarų??
Kažkoks oksimoronas...

[John]

Video
DĖMESIO, turinys ne jautrių nervų žmonėms: https://www.funker530.com/russian-am...-assassinated/

[John]

Žudikas - mentas

[J.U.]

Video
DĖMESIO, turinys ne jautrių nervų žmonėms: https://www.funker530.com/russian-am...-assassinated/

Įdomu, kaip sultonas reaguos.

[liutass]

Įdomu, kaip sultonas reaguos.

mazai nepasirodys....

[index]

mazai nepasirodys....

Esmė, kad žudikas Sultonui saviškis, policininkas. Ir nušovė ambasadą "už Alepą" t.y. už tai, kad Rusija ten kariavo su turkų remiamais pūkuotukais.

[liutass]

Esmė, kad žudikas Sultonui saviškis, policininkas. Ir nušovė ambasadą "už Alepą" t.y. už tai, kad Rusija ten kariavo su turkų remiamais pūkuotukais.

isvartys taip, kaip politiskai priklauso. Nauda gaus Rusija.

[liux]

teroristai teroristus terorizuoja su ypatingu cinizmu, kamerų šviesoje.

[index]

isvartys taip, kaip politiskai priklauso. Nauda gaus Rusija.

Priklauso ir nuo to, ką Sultonas galvoja apie Alepą. Jei nurašytas reikalas - nurašys kaip Guleno smogiką, jei vis dar turi planų paimti visą Siriją - gali vėl prasidėti epizodinis konfliktas su Rusija.

Beje, panašu, kad bičas tuo metu dirbo kaip ambasadoriaus apsauginis.

[Kitas Džiugas]

Žudikas - mentas

Atvaizdas

Kodėl ten Osmanų herbas?

[index]

Kodėl ten Osmanų herbas?

Jis jaunas, policijos akademiją baigė jau prie Sultono Erdogano. Ir jau praislamistintas.

[liux]

Jis jaunas, policijos akademiją baigė jau prie Sultono Erdogano. Ir jau praislamistintas.

vienas praislamistintas, kitas-ihtamnetas krymnašistas.

[DeSadas]

Video
DĖMESIO, turinys ne jautrių nervų žmonėms: https://www.funker530.com/russian-am...-assassinated/

JOKIO BEVIZIO JUDEJIMO! Tegul vietoje razborkes darosi!