„Hezbollah“ karo instruktoriaus Assiro teigimu, rusai vis labiau nusivilia Sirijos vyriausybės pajėgų sugebėjimais ir daugiau iniciatyvos perduoda į drąsių ir gerai treniruotų libaniečių rankas. „Mes patys mokome sirus, kaip naudotis naujausia ginkluote“, – išdidžiai teigė teroristas.
Priesingai nei jis pucias, ruskiai neduoda jokiu advanced ginklu ir remia smulkia ginkluote, kuria gauna per Sirija, o ne tiesiogiai.
Nauja spekuliacija:
Sirija gali stumtis link Idlibo izoliacijos, uzdarant pukuotukams aprupinimo kanala is Azazo, kertant pro Rojavos "pasieni" iki Turkijos sienos ir nuo ten judant zemyn. Pora geresniu komentaru is Reddito:
This is the most sensible strategy. If the regime forces go at Idlib from the east, they will have to clear other rebel strongholds like Saraqeb, Teftanaz, and Bennish. If they go at it from the north, the only serious obstacle is Atareb(and another thing: if they go at Idlib from the north, their rear won't be exposed because the Afrin YPG is to their north - Afrin SDF are also likely to attack the rebels when regime is close to Bab Hawa to grab a bit of territory as well, making things easier for the regime). So first, they will dash west, until reaching the Turkish border, and then, dash south, until they reach Fuah and Kufraya, lifting the siege, and use them as an anchor before the campaign ends with the storming of Idlib.
Events are proceeding at a very fast pace. The Army is 1 or 2 villages away from Al-Bab, and they are a few hundred meters away from Deir Hafir, literally on the outskirts. SDF are going to capture Manbij pretty soon at current pace, and it's doubtful Jarablus will last for much longer after that. This all means that Wilayat Aleppo is finished, SAA and SDF are partitioning it between themselves as we speak, the 4 cities I mentioned are the only ones Daesh hold in Aleppo. Because of the state of peace between the army and the SDF, skeleton crews can be left to defend these areas by the regime, and the rest can be redeployed for the Idlib operations.
And people were laughing when loyalists proclaimed that reclaiming Idlib and Jisr Shughur is the strategic goal of the operation back in October. Yet here they are, getting closer every week.
It should also be noted that another matter of significance is that if the regime forces succeed in their plans to reach Baba Hawa, they will take Afrin canton hostage. Afrin is defended by mountains on every side, except for 2 corridors, the northern, and southern. The entrance into the northern corridor is in Turkey. The entrance into the southern corridor is 10 or so kilometers north of Bab Hawa. So if the SDF get any ideas about trying to demolish the regime pockets in Hasakah and Qamishli, the regime will be able to quickly respond by moving in on Afrin from the south.
Events are proceeding at a very fast pace. The Army is 1 or 2 villages away from Al-Bab, and they are a few hundred meters away from Deir Hafir, literally on the outskirts. SDF are going to capture Manbij pretty soon at current pace, and it's doubtful Jarablus will last for much longer after that. This all means that Wilayat Aleppo is finished, SAA and SDF are partitioning it between themselves as we speak, the 4 cities I mentioned are the only ones Daesh hold in Aleppo. Because of the state of peace between the army and the SDF, skeleton crews can be left to defend these areas by the regime, and the rest can be redeployed for the Idlib operations.
And people were laughing when loyalists proclaimed that reclaiming Idlib and Jisr Shughur is the strategic goal of the operation back in October. Yet here they are, getting closer every week.
It should also be noted that another matter of significance is that if the regime forces succeed in their plans to reach Baba Hawa, they will take Afrin canton hostage. Afrin is defended by mountains on every side, except for 2 corridors, the northern, and southern. The entrance into the northern corridor is in Turkey. The entrance into the southern corridor is 10 or so kilometers north of Bab Hawa. So if the SDF get any ideas about trying to demolish the regime pockets in Hasakah and Qamishli, the regime will be able to quickly respond by moving in on Afrin from the south.
I laughed at Idlib and Jisr Shughour being the targets because at the time the regime was running tanks into the Ghab Plain and getting chewed up, almost as if they wanted to recapture their salient. THAT was a stupid idea. Idlib is probably also the least government friendly province in Syria; makes things rough.
I thought the SAA+Allies would try to isolate Idlib with offensives from all sides, which I think makes sense. Focusing irrationally on the urban areas didn't make any sense, and since the Russian intervention they haven't been doing that. Pin the rebels in a smaller geographic area where you can have tighter lines of defense and concentrate firepower easier. Same deal with reducing the Ghouta and Homs pockets.
There won't be a decisive victory here like it seemed the Russians imagined at first; it'll be like the anti-ISIS campaign. Long, slow degrading of the rebels capabilities with pressure coming from all sides.
After this I will never again doubt the government's seriousness about maintaining its territorial integrity. They're really trying to outlast the rebellion. I thought, "Oh, ok, Idlib. Small provincial capital where SAA has near zero support. Ever heard of any Idlib NDF? Yeah, uh huh- none outside of Fua + Kefraya. Idlib was an occupation, big deal." But the government isn't going for decisive victories on any fronts. They're maintaining a presence everywhere and trying to win the war of attrition.
Government still has not recaptured Morek, Jisr, Ariha, Idlib, Qarytayn, Military Center in West Aleppo, or Palmyra, which is important to keep in mind, but they are pursuing their own strategy on their own time and terms. Shows maturity in their decision making. Restablishing the salient in Idlib wouldn't have accomplished anything, it would have fallen down again. They're attacking things they want to hold forever and focusing on degrading the rebels, not holding terrain.
I thought the SAA+Allies would try to isolate Idlib with offensives from all sides, which I think makes sense. Focusing irrationally on the urban areas didn't make any sense, and since the Russian intervention they haven't been doing that. Pin the rebels in a smaller geographic area where you can have tighter lines of defense and concentrate firepower easier. Same deal with reducing the Ghouta and Homs pockets.
There won't be a decisive victory here like it seemed the Russians imagined at first; it'll be like the anti-ISIS campaign. Long, slow degrading of the rebels capabilities with pressure coming from all sides.
After this I will never again doubt the government's seriousness about maintaining its territorial integrity. They're really trying to outlast the rebellion. I thought, "Oh, ok, Idlib. Small provincial capital where SAA has near zero support. Ever heard of any Idlib NDF? Yeah, uh huh- none outside of Fua + Kefraya. Idlib was an occupation, big deal." But the government isn't going for decisive victories on any fronts. They're maintaining a presence everywhere and trying to win the war of attrition.
Government still has not recaptured Morek, Jisr, Ariha, Idlib, Qarytayn, Military Center in West Aleppo, or Palmyra, which is important to keep in mind, but they are pursuing their own strategy on their own time and terms. Shows maturity in their decision making. Restablishing the salient in Idlib wouldn't have accomplished anything, it would have fallen down again. They're attacking things they want to hold forever and focusing on degrading the rebels, not holding terrain.
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